In this Daily Trade Watch report, we look for high probability trade setups that we can trade throughout the day. Today, we will mainly focus on one of the biggest news events of the month, the Nonfarm Payroll. In summary, we will observe NFP and Oil weakness.
NFP
Of course, employment is an important economic driver. More people in work means more money is spent on products and services and, eventually, more tax is generated for the US government. Therefore, if we see a positive NFP number we are likely to see US Dollar strength. But, if we get a negative number we are likely to see the opposite and see the USD continue to weaken further against the major pairs.
Be aware of the potential for some positioning prior to the news event. Meaning, if you take any trades perhaps look to get out of them prior to 12.30pm UK Time.
Oil
The only other market which is giving us a high probability trade set up is Oil. Looking at the US Oil market, we have seen the break below the 64.50 that we discussed in Wednesday’s video. So, if we see a break below yesterday’s low of 63.00 then we would expect prices to continue further to the downside.
NFP and Oil Weakness – Full Video Analysis
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