GBPNZD – Long-term Analysis

The GBPNZD cross in the long-term overview is developing a corrective move from the pre-Brexit level 2.0470. In this post, we will review our two scenarios for this cross.

The Weekly Overview

Watching the weekly timeframe, we appreciate that GBPNZD cross made a bullish cycle from 1.67049 on November 2017, to 2.0470 reached on October 2018. Once time achieved the highest level for two years, the cross retraced and founded support at the 61.8% fib level (1.8141). The RSI oscillator suggests that the price still is on the bearish side. The major degree corrective sequence could be an A-B-C pattern.

First Scenario

Considering the A-B-C pattern structure, on the daily timeframe, we might define two possible scenarios. In the first one, the breakdown and close below 1.8822 would activate bearish targets at 1.7979, 1.7583, and 1.7079. From the last levels, GBPNZD could create a new connector, giving way to a new bullish cycle. The invalidation level from this scenario is above 1.9246.

Second Scenario

In the second scenario, we consider the short-term structure starting from the short-term low at 1.8125. The breakout and close above 1.9246 activate bullish targets at1.9598 and 1.9866, from the cross might fall developing a new bearish leg. If the price surpasses and closes above 2.0209, the GBPNZD possibly will reach new highs above 2.0470. The invalidation level for this scenario is 1.8822.

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