Our Urgent Market Update Video reviews important real-time market developments and their impact on high-probability trading opportunities. Today, we discuss how to prepare for today’s US job numbers. What we can say for sure is we can expect volatility.
As you may be aware, this is a big week for the US jobs market. On Tuesday, JOLTS job opening numbers came in much lower than expected. ADP numbers also came in lower than expected and Unemployment Claims increased slightly from previous weekly numbers. All of these news releases both individually and collectively are potentially positive for Global Indices markets. The reason is they show signs of a loosening US jobs market which, in turn, is likely to bring about an interest rate pivot from the FED. This may support other Central Banks to also lower rates in the coming quarters.
So when we ask ourselves, what will today’s NFP job numbers bring? Our answer is actually very binary. If NFP job numbers come in below expectation (i.e. bad news) then be prepared for further risk-on market conditions to prevail. Alternatively, if NFP job numbers come in above expectation (i.e. good news) we can prepare for risk-off conditions to start feeding through. Our slight preference is to see lower-than-expected NFP job numbers which we are well positioned for already. Let’s see what happens and, as always, control your downside risks at times like these.
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